Reflections on the state of COVID-19 in the USA. Thoughts on timing of second leg down. Review of investment and trading strategy. I my briefing today I will provide some reflections on the current state of affairs regarding the propagation of COVID-19 as well as some thoughts about the timing of the second leg down. Read more...
Very important contributions by members on impact of COVID-19 on US and global economic life. The contributions suggest that there will be no "return to normal" any time soon. In many cases things will never go back to how they were. The contributions, as a whole indicate that the ongoing recession will be extremely deep and very prolonged. Read more...
Primary TA hypothesis is a sideways choppy market, with downward bias. Watch key resistance today around SPX 2880 to 2900. No change in investment and/or trading strategy or tactics. Read more...
US-China tensions raise specter of a repeat of Smoot-Hawley. I reflect on the fundamental substance that was explicit and implicit in comments by Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger. I reflect on the broad psychological impact of Buffet and Munger's cautious -- even fearful -- actions and words. The two most important developments over the weekend: 1) Increase of US-China tensions; 2) Warren Buffet's fundamentally bearish outlook. Read more...
This report addresses various arguments presented by subscribers that challenge the bear thesis for US equities and the bull thesis for gold. The answers important conceptual and empirical arguments and distinctions that are important to understand. Remember: If you are "ahead of the crowd" in terms of fundamental understanding, by definition, price will likely move against you temporarily. This is where you integrate TA with fundamentals. Read more...
