A warning is issued to both traders and investors about getting "suckered in" by bear market rallies. Long-term investors need to be particularly cautious to avoid being "trapped" by bear market rallies. Traders need to be extremely reluctant and cautious in trying to "game" the potential upside. Read more...
Highlights INTRODUCTION This issue of Portfolio Strategy Monthly will update readers on the evolution of key economic and financial conditions during the past month that are critical for the design of our portfolio strategy. The exposition of this report will be structured as follows: 1. Review. In this section we review the most important economic … Continue reading PORTFOLIO STRATEGY UPDATE: November 2020 Read more...
The US equity market is poised to enter into a new bear market, depending on the evolution of three key factors. A combination of a second wave of COVID-19, failure and/or delay of fiscal stimulus and certain electoral scenarios are likely to trigger a new bear market in US equities. Over-valuation in most sectors of the market, combined with excessive speculative activity create ripe conditions for a decline in the S&P 500 index of 20% or more. Read more...
Fiscal stimulus is the hinge. Is fiscal stimulus forthcoming? The technical analysis outlook. Notes on portfolio positioning. Special note on Energy. Read more...
Trump's health may have limited impact financial markets. Focus should be concentrated on key issues impacting markets. Trump's health is potentially important only insofar as it impacts certain key market-moving issues. Read more...
Fate of fiscal stimulus probably to be decided today. Definitive news will likely send the market up or down sharply. Read more...
